Most fit analysis stops at the mission statement. Does what we do match what they fund.
That question is necessary and it is rarely the one that decides the outcome. The question that decides it is where the funder is in their own cycle.
Three timing signals
A funder who has just announced a new strategic priority is looking for early examples of it working. A funder three years into a priority is looking for scale and evidence. Those want completely different applications from the same organisation.
A funder who has just changed programme staff will often shift what gets through, even with the published criteria unchanged. Announcement pages and staff listings tell you this before the guidance does.
A funder with an underspent budget near their year end behaves differently from one at the start of a cycle. Annual reports carry the dates.
Using it
None of this replaces mission fit.
It decides which of the funders you already fit are worth approaching this quarter rather than next year. That is a smaller and far more answerable question than the one most fit exercises try to settle.